Why Man City could defend the UCL but another treble is unlikely

Pep Guardiola is a difficult man to understand. The Manchester City A coach often betrays a sense of false modesty by suggesting that incredible feats are beyond the reach of his team before watching his players do what he originally thought was impossible. Last season's triple success was a prime example of this.

Perhaps Guardiola is simply adopting the same old “mind games” that most successful bosses use to ease the pressure on their teams and lower expectations. But when a top manager downplays the chances of winning, no one really believes him.

Nevertheless, City resume the defense of their Champions League title when they face each other FC Copenhagen In Denmark on Tuesday in the first leg of the round of 16, Guardiola categorically ruled out the possibility of such an encounter Premier League The champions repeat their triple triumph from last year.

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“It’s a fairy tale, it’s more complicated than that.” he said last week. “We have a 99.99% chance that we won't win the Treble because no one has ever, ever, ever, ever, ever done it. If it was easy, another team – – -, another team – – – Manchester United at this time – would do it again. It is not easy. Everything is so difficult in this business that what we have done in the past is no guarantee of anything.”

Another case of false modesty or a case of Guardiola giving everyone involved with City a cold dose of reality?

The truth is that Guardiola could be right. Since the start of the Champions League era in 1992, seven teams, including City, have achieved the treble of national championship, national cup and Champions League. So far, none of them have backed this up by repeating the feat 12 months later.

In 1999 and 2000, Sir Alex Ferguson's treble-winning Manchester United team defended the Premier League title but were eliminated in the quarter-finals of the Champions League real Madrid. This season, United failed to defend the FA Cup after withdrawing from the competition to take part in FIFA Club World Championship in Brasil.

Ten years later, Guardiola Barcelona won just one competition – LaLiga – after achieving the treble in 2008/09 Series A Champion Inter Milan continued their treble in the 2009/10 season and only won that Coppa Italia the following season.

German giants Bayern Munich achieved the treble in 2012-13 and 2019-20, but achieved a domestic double in 2013-14 and won only that Bundesliga in the 2020-21 season while Luis Enrique's Barcelona won LaLiga and Copa del Rey in the 2015–16 season, but were eliminated from the Champions League in the quarter-finals, dashing their hopes of back-to-back trebles.

But even if City are unable to become the first team in history to win the treble in consecutive seasons, they have an advantage that none of their six Champions League predecessors had: no up-and-coming team seems ready to conquer the throne.

Vicente del Bosque's great Real Madrid side, which won two Champions League titles in three seasons, ended United's hopes in 2000; Jose Mourinho's treble-winning Inter side knocked out Barcelona in 2010; Bayern were ousted by Carlo Ancelotti's Real Madrid in 2014; Diego Simeone's Atletico Madrid was in charge of Barcelona in 2016 before losing to Real in the final.

In 2021, Bayern's defense of their European title came to an end Paris St Germain in the quarterfinals. This year, as Chelsea won the title is perhaps the only example of a treble winner coming up short in a relatively weak field. They are usually defeated by a strong opponent.

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But it's hard to see such a threat to City in this season's competition. Bayern are struggling at home under Thomas Tuchel, losing 3-0 on Saturday Bayer Leverkusen This raises the real prospect that Bayern will fail to win the Bundesliga for the first time since 2011, while PSG is a declining force in the Champions League following PSG's recent departures Neymar And Lionel Messi.

Barcelona are treading water in LaLiga, Italian champions Naples are in the middle of the table in Serie A, while neither Borussia Dortmund or Atletico Madrid are likely to emerge as surprise winners. arsenal Still need to be convinced that they have the consistency and experience to win the Champions League for the first time and while Inter look strong at the top of Serie A, City would have no fear of that Nerrazzurri if they met after beating Simone Inzaghi's side in last season's final in Istanbul.

This leaves Real as the biggest threat to City, albeit as a midfielder Jew Bellingham – who is expected to be sidelined until March with an ankle injury – has performed exceptionally well this season, but the LaLiga leaders still appear to lack a proven goalscoring base Karim Benzema's move to Al Ittihad last summer. And City beat Real 5-1 on aggregate in last season's semi-finals, so Guardiola won't be fazed by a clash with Ancelotti's team.

The team City fears most – Liverpool – are not even represented in the Champions League this season, so the path to glory in the competition seems more than passable. But the Champions League is only part of the triple. Liverpool are still standing in City's way in the Premier League and FA Cup, so Guardiola may be right to downplay his team's treble chances.

The Champions League may be the easiest to win, but while City are the team to beat in all areas, their domestic challenge is likely to be the toughest and will ultimately bring them down and prove Guardiola right to be pessimistic.