March Madness 2024 Men's Field Predictions

REGULATE

ESPN's bracketology efforts are focused on planning the NCAA Tournament field, just as we expect the NCAA Division I Basketball Committee to select the field in March. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi uses the same data points preferred by the committee in his projections of the field, including strength of schedule and other full-season indicators, including NET and team standings data similar to that available to the NCAA stand. Visit the NCAA website to learn more NCAA selection criteria.

68 team bracket

The 68-team bracket is the standard version of the NCAA tournament field that has existed since 2011. However, if the 2021 field consists of 68 teams, there will be some key differences from previous years.

Of course, the main change from a normal year is that the entire NCAA Tournament will be played in a single location. This eliminates the need for geographical considerations when sowing. Additionally, there will be at least one fewer automatic qualifying tournament this season as the Ivy League's decision to forego the 2020-21 season reduces the number of AQ entries for this season to 31.

48 team bracket

In this projection, a compressed selection process would reduce the field by 10 total teams and 10 automatically qualified teams (with the latter still receiving a unit of revenue). The top four finishers in each region would receive a bye to the second round, with four first-round games per region – 5-on-12, 6-on-11, 7-on-10 and 8-on-9 – being played without fans at the higher seed's home court.

To minimize travel, first-round matchups will be determined by geography as much as possible. And the reduced field of participants means that only 32 teams compete against each other at the central location. All participants must post a conference record of at least .500 – the “Lunardi Rule” – for general consideration.

16-team bracket

In this prediction, the committee selects and bets the top 16 teams available. There are no automatic qualifiers, although all non-participating conference champions will receive the designated revenue unit.

To maintain some national balance, participation in the conference is limited to four teams. And no region can have more than one team from the same conference.