Dolphins-Ravens preview: Matchups, X-factors, key stats

BALTIMORE – As the Miami Dolphins After returning to their team facility this week, they asked each other what they did for Christmas and headed to their meeting rooms.

There have been no discussions about playoff scenarios that would lead to a showdown between the AFC’s top teams on Sunday when the Ravens (12-3) host the Dolphins (11-4) at M&T Bank Stadium (1 p.m ET, CBS).

“We understand what it’s about,” the Dolphins quarterback said Tua Tagovailoa said Wednesday. “I think if you overdo it, it might get to a point where you start to hunt ghosts in a way.

“On the other hand, if you learn the way you learn and do things the way you did them, and then add a little something extra every time, we could potentially be the team we’ve always wanted.” “Been since training camp.”

According to ESPN Stats & Information, this is the fourth time in the last 30 seasons that the top two teams in a single conference have met in the final two weeks of the regular season.

Baltimore, which has won five straight and is a 3.5-point favorite, can clinch the AFC’s No. 1 seed with a win against the Dolphins, secure a first-round bye and secure home-field advantage in the playoffs . The Ravens have secured the top spot in the AFC once in their 27 years of existence.

Miami can overtake the Ravens as the No. 1 seed by winning its final two games. The Dolphins are hosts Buffalo Bills in the regular season finale.

“It’s an exciting situation,” Ravens coach John Harbaugh said. “You come to this time of year, [and] You get into games where you have a chance, where the game means so much, where winning a game has such a great reward because of what you’ve done so far.

“This is a deserved thing and the Dolphins deserve the same. So it’s kind of a game.”

ESPN Ravens reporter Jamison Hensley and Dolphins reporter Marcel Louis-Jacques break down why each team is a good chance to win Sunday, offering a vulnerability and an X-factor.

Why every team is a strong bet to win

Ravens: Lamar Jackson. The betting favorite for NFL MVP, Jackson has helped the Ravens win this season, whether it’s evading pass rushers to gain more time to throw or running for a big play.

Jackson has allowed Baltimore to average 30.1 points over its last nine games despite being without its most explosive running backs (JK Dobbins And Keaton Mitchell) and most productive target (tight end). Mark Andrews). Plus, Jackson was perfect at M&T Bank Stadium this time of year. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, he is 9-0 at home in December, which is the most home wins without a loss in the final month of the calendar year since 1950. –Hensley

Dolphins: Offense. The Dolphins have the highest scoring offense in the NFL with 30.9 points per game. They also lead the league with 411.5 yards per game, 275.1 passing yards per game and 4.98 rushing yards per play.

When fully healthy, there are four players in this offense who can score from anywhere on the field – Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane And Raheem Mostert – but that’s not the only reason Miami is a real threat in the AFC.

The Dolphins’ defense ranks in the top five in yards allowed per game (fourth at 296.5), rushing yards allowed per game (fifth at 90.8) and sacks per pass attempt. They trail only the Ravens in total sacks (54-52), which is impressive considering Miami is the top pass rusher. Jaelan Phillipstore his Achilles tendon in week 12.

This is a versatile team that has proven to be elite on both sides of the ball. — Louis Jacques

Why every team is vulnerable

Ravens: The ground game. Stopping the run is the one area where Baltimore’s defense hasn’t dominated. In three losses, the Ravens have given up an average of 134.6 yards rushing.

Baltimore has allowed two 100-yard rushers (the Los Angeles Rams‘ Kyren Williams And San Francisco 49ers‘ Christian McCaffrey) in the last three games.

The Dolphins are fifth in the NFL with 136.4 rushing yards per game.

Offensively, the Ravens lead the NFL in rushing, but outside of Jackson, they haven’t gotten much out of the ground game lately. Current running backs Gus Edwards And Justice Hill have combined to average 3.6 yards per carry over the last six games. It was difficult at times to run out the clock in the fourth quarter. –Hensley

Dolphins: The injuries are piling up. Thursday’s news that Waddle is not expected to play because of a high ankle sprain is a big blow. Waddle has 1,014 receiving yards and he caught 11 passes for 171 yards and two touchdowns against the Ravens last season.

Security Jevon Holland hasn’t played since Week 12 due to MCL sprains in both knees, although he has participated in more practice since Wednesday. Right guard Robert Hunt hasn’t played since Week 13 due to a hamstring injury. Meanwhile the guard left Isaiah Wynn remains on injured reserve with a quad injury, center Connor Williams is out for the season due to a torn cruciate ligament and right tackling Austin Jackson is struggling with an oblique injury.

Injuries aside, three of Miami’s four losses came on the road, all against opponents with winning records. While last week’s win over the Cowboys helped quell the narrative that Miami can’t beat teams with winning records, the Dolphins need to prove they can win on the road in South Florida. According to ESPN Stats & Information, if they win, it would be the first time in franchise history that the Dolphins beat 10-win teams in consecutive weeks. — Louis Jacques

Top match to watch

Ravens: Tagovailoa and Hill vs. Ravens secondary. Tagovailoa leads the NFL in completions (18) and touchdown passes (nine) on throws that travel at least 25 yards through the air. Hill caught seven of those touchdown passes, more than twice as many as any other player this season on such throws.

The Ravens have been among the best in passing since Hill caught touchdown passes of 48 and 60 yards in the fourth-quarter collapse last season. Since its Week 2 loss to Miami, Baltimore has limited teams to 34 touchdown passes, which is the third fewest in the NFL.

“Obviously it was a tough pill for us to swallow,” Harbaugh said. “[But] We learned a lot about ourselves [and] our covers.” –Hensley

Dolphins: The Dolphins’ offensive line against Baltimore’s front seven. Baltimore leads the NFL in sacks and Miami’s struggling offensive line faces its toughest task of the season.

Aside from adequate pass protection, Miami will rely on a strong running game to keep Tagovailoa going. Mostert leads the NFL with 18 rushing touchdowns and could become the first player since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006 to score more than 20 rushing touchdowns in a season.

If Baltimore needs to respect the threat of a run, its front seven can’t just focus on pressuring Jackson. — Louis Jacques

X factors

Ravens: Sales. The Ravens forced an NFL-high 26 turnovers – the most in six years – including five interceptions in Monday’s win at San Francisco.

With a plus-10 turnover differential, Baltimore is tied for best in the league with the Steelers and Buccaneers. The Ravens have scored 91 points from takeaways this season, second only to Miami (99 points from takeaways).

Ball security was crucial for Baltimore late in the season. During their five-game winning streak, no team turned the ball over less than the Ravens. The Ravens committed two giveaways (Jackson threw two interceptions) in a span of 332 offensive plays. –Hensley

Dolphins: De’Von Achane. Against this pass rush, the rookie could be an explosive safety valve out of the backfield. Especially with Waddle’s status unknown, Miami could use all the home run hitters it can get on Sunday.

Since returning from a knee injury in Week 13, Achane has only surpassed 100 scrimmage yards once, despite recording double-digit touches in three of the four games.

During his explosive three-game stretch from Week 3 to Week 5, he averaged 11.5 yards per touch over 45 touchdowns, but that’s an unreasonable number to expect from a running back. However, it is an example of what the third-round pick can do. — Louis Jacques