Goalie Tandem Fantasy Picks – Which Player Should You Choose?

In my opinion, it’s safer to predict precipitation one day six months from now than to confidently say how the goalie position will play out in the upcoming fantasy hockey season.

That’s not to say there aren’t safer bets – but you have to pay for them. Igor Shesterkin, Ilya Sorokin, Jake Oettinger, Connor Hellebuyck …they’re probably a better investment for your fantasy team, but they cost a high draft pick.

But last year there was a better way to win the league by drafting Linus Ullmark And Alexandra Georgiev, which was all about supporting the right two sleepers. Who will these sleepers be this season? As already suggested, this is a difficult decision.

Now more than ever, a successful fantasy strategy can emerge from the world of tandems. If one emerges and dominates, it’s a cost-effective draft investment that can lead to championships (think Ullmark). But even if the time split remains the same, goalkeepers can still earn fantasy value – Ilya Samsonov ranked 108th overall last season with just 50.2% fold percentage and Filip Gustavsson took 81st place overall with only 46.5% fold percentage.

We’ve listed the teams most likely to use a tandem this season below. Some are more likely than others, while others are just a guess given the current status of their goalkeepers. There’s also a chance we missed something that could come up. But when making your draft purchases for your goal crease, don’t discount the potential value of a goalie who is only expected to get 50% of the crease share.

Relevant stats for each goaltender include his crease percentage from last season, his overall fantasy ranking, his fantasy points per 60 minutes, and his average draft position so far this draft season. Keep in mind that an ADP higher than about 220 means they won’t be drafted in most ESPN leagues.

• Linus Ullmark: 58.9% crease share, fourth overall fantasy points, 5.38 fantasy points per game (FPP60), 38.2 average draft position (ADP)

• Jeremy Swayman: 41.1% crease percentage, 144th overall, 4.04 FPP60, 108.6 ADP

This is the potential tandem that will give fantasy managers the most headaches. Ullmark blew the field away last season and would be a clear first-round fantasy pick if we knew he would do it again. But so many off-season changes, not least the retirement of Patrice Bergeron, leaves many questions. Are the Bruins just as good defensively? Do they win just as often? But even beyond these questions, Swayman deserved a raise and the chance to prove that he has a long-term future as a starter for the club.

Given the question marks, I wouldn’t recommend paying the premium for Ullmark, but if he goes closer to the 70th overall pick, I might go along with it. Given that Swayman is on the weak side of the tandem, his average draft price of 108 is also on the high end. But let’s be clear: both goalkeepers have the potential to make a difference in the 2023-24 season. The problem is that we can’t say that with much confidence.

• Adin Hill: 33.7% wrinkle percentage, 451st overall, 3.02 FPP60, 211.3 ADP

• Logan Thompson: 49.1% wrinkle percentage, 248th overall, 2.99 FPP60, 241.9 ADP

Neither goaltender was a fixture on fantasy clubs for most of last season, although Thompson had some good performances early in the season. But we all know what Hill did after the regular season when he led the Golden Knights to the Stanley Cup. There’s an argument to be made that this isn’t a tandem going into the season, with Hill getting a huge raise, but Hill has never played more than 27 games in an NHL season before, so it’s hard to see him as a workhorse in the starting eleven to describe this phase.

This will likely be a “hot-hand” goal, with whichever goalkeeper has a good run getting the lion’s share of starts. After being so dominant in the postseason, Hill would be my favorite for a fantasy team. However, there is a chance that you can secure both later in drafts and keep the defending champions’ circle in your squad.

• Stuart Skinner: 58.9% crease percentage, 132nd overall, 2.86 FPP60, 158.0 ADP

• Jack Campbell: 41.1% wrinkle percentage, 627th overall, 1.29 FPP60, 229.0 ADP

This tandem, like the Golden Knights, had a transition from the regular season to the postseason. Skinner was the hero of the regular season, taking the starting job away from Campbell and keeping the Oilers on track for the playoffs. But Skinner stumbled in the postseason, Campbell came into the game in relief several times and didn’t look too bad. This playoff narrative was probably enough for a soft restart, the highlight of which will be the 2023/24 season.

The Oilers should win a lot of games with their superior offense and improved defense, but who will be able to pull off most of those wins? Skinner’s ADP is very tasty, but Campbell shouldn’t be completely discounted at this point. In fact, it could be an old-school insurance scenario where drafting Skinner means targeting Campbell in the latter rounds to play it safe. Since the Oilers are a 50-win team these days, this is a plus.

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This is probably the most chaotic scoring arc in the NHL, but also one of the best goaltenders to generate fantasy value. When both Andersen and Raanta were injured last season, Kochetkov had the chance to show that he could handle his job at the net. But later in the season, the rookie’s chances dwindled, so the Hurricanes eventually had to decide to re-sign both Andersen and Raanta to relatively short-term contracts. Kochetkov, now 24, can be sent to the AHL without risking waivers, making him the No. 3 goaltender for the Canes this season.

Then there is the Andersen or Raanta debate. Raanta was the better goaltender of the two last season, posting better rates and nearly as many wins in fewer starts, but we’re just two years removed from Andersen finishing 24th overall in fantasy in 2021-22 with a 3.85 FPP60 documented.

Health will be the first and most important concern as Andersen and Raanta were vulnerable both last season and the season before that (remember Andersen missed the 2021-22 playoffs). However, the Hurricanes wouldn’t invest in Andersen and Raanta again unless they believe one of them could be the guy for at least another season while Kochetkov is still eligible for a waiver. Andersen’s ADP actually trends downward if he ends up getting the most starts here, which is the most likely scenario.

Despite saving the Kings from themselves last season, Copley apparently hasn’t done enough to earn a clear starting shot. Copley was a great stabilizer for the Kings last season, winning twice as many games as anyone else on the roster. But his ratings weren’t great and declined over time. The kings brought in Joonas Korpisalo at the trade deadline, but Korpisalo chose the Ottawa Senators in the offseason. The natural choice from there? Sign the Senators goalie from last season. Cam Talbot had a rough year, earning almost no fantasy value, and is now 36 years old. Age is a big issue, as Talbot is already past the point in the goaltending curve where he normally remains productive for fantasy. But Copley, appropriately enough, didn’t exactly change the game for fantasy managers in his 37 games last season.

Talbot didn’t see as much wear and tear as some other 36-year-old goalkeepers and spent much of his career as a substitute. So there’s a world where he can put together another solid season behind a solid squad. Copley doesn’t have much upside, so the ideal situation here is for Talbot to hold on for another year and get the bulk of the starts. He’s the one to risk.

• Vitek Vanecek: 59.0% crease percentage, 111th overall, 3.08 FPP60, 116.2 ADP

• Akira Schmid: 18.2% crease percentage, 574th overall, 3.48 FPP60, 228.4 ADP

• Jordan Binnington: 71.4% wrinkle percentage, 541st overall, 1.00 FPP60, 228.1 ADP

• Joel Hofer: 6.4% crease percentage, 805th overall, 2.16 FPP60, 230.0, ADP

None of these teams look like they’ll form a tandem on paper. But both Schmid and Hofer have a lot to offer and are both coming into the season at 23, which is about the age at which goalkeepers really start playing. When drafting Vanecek, handcuffing Schmid is a good idea. You probably shouldn’t pay attention to Binnington, but Hofer has potential if he pushes for more time.

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